By: John Hall, Editor in Chief
Impeachment is the action with which official charges are levied against a government official. In the United States these individuals include Judges of the Supreme Court, persons that sit on Constitutional Commissions, Ombudsman, the Vice President, and President of the United States.
With the current sitting President, Donald J. Trump at the epicenter of an Impeachment Inquiry, many Americans are wondering what will happen next, with many speculating that it would be the end of his Presidency.
To date, no President has been removed from office as a result of Impeachment Proceedings; however, history has shown how impeachments inquiries have adversely affected those surrounding the issues. Dr. Daniel Dubois, Assistant Professor of History of history weighed in on how the proceedings have helped successive political parties.
Dubois said, “They [impeachment proceedings]definitely didn’t help Johnson personally, but the Republican Party won the 1868 presidential election when they ran Civil War hero Ulysses S. Grant. With Nixon, and especially after Gerald Ford (who became president when Nixon resigned) pardoned him for all crimes, the GOP took a political hit, but it didn’t last long. Reagan was elected only four years later. And it’s probably true that Clinton’s impeachment didn’t help Al Gore, but that was a razor-thin election, and it’s impossible to say for sure that’s why Democrats lost the White House in 2000. “
Instructor of Political Science, Professor Frank Orlando believes that the strengthening of the opposing party through impeachment proceedings have only happened in one instance- The impeachment of President Richard Nixon. According to Orlando, “Democrats gained huge majorities in both the House and Senate in 1974 and the Presidency in 1976. However, Republicans came out worse for the wear in both their attempts to impeach Johnson and Clinton.”
True to form the parties that have endured the brunt of an Impeachment, because of their Presidents’ actions have seen the negative effects.
However, with an extraordinarily high approval rating throughout his tenure, it is unknown if these proceedings will have any effect on the Republican parties’ bid to re-elect Trump. By way of Twitter the President has proclaimed and touted the loyalty he has been given from the Republican Party.
In a tweet dated 26 Aug. 2018, the President tweeted, “Over 90% approval rating for your all-time favorite (I hope) President within the Republican Party and 52% overall. This despite all of the made-up stories by the Fake News Media trying endlessly to make me look as bad and evil as possible. Look at the real villains please!”
Orlando believes that it is unlikely for the President to be convicted as a result of Republican’s support for him. “I think that the Democrats will end up impeaching Trump in the House, but that he will avoid conviction in the Senate. I think it is unrealistic that 20 Republican senators will join with 47 united democrats to push President Trump out of office,” said Orlando. He believes that it is contingent as well, on any other information presented during the inquiries that may be of a damning nature.
Whether or not President Trump’s statements are accurate as far as statistics are concerned, is debatable. However, the perceived support the President believes he has is only solidified throughout several media giants who interview Republicans from the Senate and Congress, confirming their support. Dubois believes that if the Republicans maintain their allegiances with the President, there will be a substantial chance that he will stay in office and be re-elected.
Dubois said, “The key, as it was with Nixon, will be how elected Republicans respond as more and more information is uncovered from the impeachment inquiry. (He was re-elected after the Watergate scandal broke, but formal impeachment proceedings had not started.) How they respond moving forward could hold the key to Trump’s chances to survive the impeachment inquiry.”
President Trump’s tweets have continued to be a source of criticism, as critics question the accuracy of the information contained, as well as their ability to contain incriminating information.
Although the full context of the conversation is still unknown, the transcript released by the White House creates the picture of a favor being asked of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky was asked to look into a conspiracy theory of The President, involving then Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden. The transcription of the phone call has been interpreted as the United States withholding aid, in lieu of the Ukrainian President’s ability to acquiesce to the request.
While the request in and of itself may have appeared at the time innocent, the optics of what it presents could not be any more tarnished. Political analysts, along with late-night talk shows teem daily with the revelations, being filtered into the public’s purview. Most of whom believe that this event, more than the Stormy Daniels saga and Mueller Investigation represent a significant threat to the Presidency.
“[Trump] is on record leveraging US military support for a threatened and beleaguered ally in return for Ukraine’s help in investigating his biggest political rival heading into 2020,” said Dubois. Looking at the events evolve, there is a lot that appears to provide fuel to the Democrats Impeachment Inquiry. Dubois says, “And the more one looks into the details of this story – including the broader crisis in Ukraine and the role Russia and Vladimir Putin play there, as well as the reports from the whistleblower and Congress that the White House is going outside of carefully-designed protocols for presidential record-keeping (effectively hiding his communications with foreign leaders from our own intelligence services, for reasons still unknown) – the harder it becomes to see this investigation dying on the vine.”
Over the last three years, there has been an excessive amount of calls for accountability on both sides of the aisle. Professor Orlando believes that the parties act strategically in these regards. Orlando says, “The decisions being made (and their timing) by party leaders aren’t necessarily made because they are the right or wrong thing, but because they are politically expedient. The Democrats need to protect their members that are representing Trump districts, whereas Republicans are concerned about losing primaries to angry Trump devotees if they stick their neck out against Trump.”
