Alex Smith, Washington Redskins:
Do you know who the fifth highest scoring player in fantasy football was last season? Unless you owned him, it probably comes as a surprise that Alex Smith was one of the best players in the game last year and he set career-highs across the board in his age-33 season. The now 14-year veteran surpassed the 4,000 yard passing mark for the first time in his career, along with throwing for 26 touchdowns which beat his previous high of 20. Smith also became one of the best deep ball throwers in the game, partly because of Tyreek Hill’s ridiculous speed, and averaged a career-high 8 yards per attempt. By season’s end, Smith finished only .7 points behind the elite Tom Brady who was one of the first quarterbacks taken in fantasy drafts last season, and the former did not even play in Week 17.
Even after a great season, most of the fantasy football community seem to be down on Smith coming anywhere close to what he did last year. I am not as quick to dismiss Smith’s performance from last season, and I think there is some great value to be had here. After five years in Kansas City under a future hall of fame coach in Andy Reid, Smith had only finished as a top-10 quarterback once (2017), but his numbers were fairly consistent throughout his tenure there. Including last season, the veteran had thrown for at least 20 touchdowns in three of his five seasons and threw for at least 3,400 yards three times as well. Smith has been known for protecting the ball over his career by limiting risks, but last year we saw him step out of his comfort zone and take more shots down the field, to say the least, it paid off big time. I’m not completely convinced that after tasting greatness, he will necessarily go back to his game manager ways. At 34 years old Smith has nothing to lose by trying to be aggressive again, and if he can succeed like he did last season, he can lead his new team, the Washington Redskins, to a pretty good record by year’s end. The NFC East may be the toughest division in football, but the Redskins have plenty of talent on their roster to make an impact in the league.
While the Chiefs gave Smith some major weapons with the likes of Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill, the Redskins have a good group of young playmakers that will be around to help their new quarterback. The Washington receiving core will be anchored by Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder, and Jordan Reed, with pass-catching running back Chris Thompson around for the short passing game. There are a lot worse receiving groups that Smith could have inherited; Doctson is a former first-round pick that showed some promise last season, Reed has the skills to easily fill the Travis Kelce role as long as he stays healthy, and Thompson looked fantastic last season before getting hurt.
There is no way the Washington run-game will be anywhere near as efficient as the Kansas City one has been over the past five years, but the Redskins spent a second-round pick on Louisiana State University running back Derrius Guice in this year’s draft to help create a spark in the backfield. The Redskins also decided to use their first-round and fifth-round picks on linemen in order to create some consistency on the offensive line and keep Smith upright.
Even if you aren’t very sold on Smith’s new surrounding cast compared to his old one, take the team’s defense into consideration. While the Kansas City defense was nothing to write home about last season, they ranked 15th in points allowed per game, while Washington was tied for 27th worst in limiting opponents scoring. Why does this matter you may ask? If the defense can’t keep the other team from scoring a ton, Smith may be asked to lead a pass-heavy offense in the majority of the team’s third and fourth quarters this season. For most of the signal-caller’s time in Kansas City he had the benefit of letting the defense win games, but as soon as they were subpar during 2017, he had his best season yet. It doesn’t always spell success, but being involved in high-scoring games is usually much more favorable for fantasy quarterbacks than low-scoring ones.
The final point that sold me on Smith was the fact that he has a fantastic schedule for a fantasy quarterback. While the NFC East may arguably be the best division in football this upcoming season, there is no denying that the defenses it features are subpar. It’s true that the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense may have won them a Super Bowl, they had the best-run defense in the league last season, but against the pass they were just middle of the pack, ranking 16th in yards given up through the air. As far as the Cowboys and the Giants go there isn’t much more competition, the former did give up the 11th least amount of yards to quarterbacks, but they allowed 28 touchdowns compared to only 10 interceptions. The Giants gave up the second most yards through the air, and they allowed a league-high 32 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. This competition is nothing compared to Smith’s previous division that featured the ball-hawking Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos secondaries. Using the FantasyPros.com strength of schedule tool that is based on fantasy points allowed by the competition, Smith has the second easiest schedule out of all quarterbacks.
Alex Smith’s breakout last season was a tough one to predict, no one really saw it coming from a guy who did the same thing every year for over a decade. Going to a new team, I think there’s a lot to be excited for, and if everyone agreed with that statement, he wouldn’t be much of a sleeper. Most fantasy football players are down on Smith, and it can be seen based on the fact that he is the 22nd quarterback going off the board based on average draft position from FantasyPros.com and I am definitely buying at that price. I am not saying I believe in another top-5 performance this year, or even top-10 for that matter, but I think Smith has a top-15 floor this season with a fairly high ceiling. Quarterback is one of the deepest positions in fantasy football, so there is no need to rush and fill the roster spot, if I end up with a pair of passers like Smith and Dak Prescott both in the late rounds, I’ll still leave the draft a happy owner.
There are a lot of great options at the quarterback position this season, but even if Alex Smith regresses a bit from his numbers last year, he’ll still be a great value on draft day.
