Case Keenum, QB, Denver Broncos:
Sometimes picking sleepers requires some guts and trying to think outside the box. Although you end up taking shots on these players, they don’t usually cost a lot to do so. Usually, on draft day I try to target three to four sleepers to add to my bench because they could end up providing tremendous value. Quarterbacks can be one of the easier positions to find sleepers because they are guaranteed a large workload as long as they are the starter, unlike other positions where there are no guarantees. One quarterback who I like a lot more than other people this season is Case Keenum. The veteran can easily be a top-15 quarterback even though he may go undrafted in many leagues this summer. It seems like many people have forgotten that Keenum was a very serviceable fantasy quarterback last season and seem to have written him off for 2018. The now 30-year-old quarterback had a great year with the Minnesota Vikings by setting career highs of 3,547 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and QBR of 71.3. Keenum cashed in on his performance this offseason with a two year, 36 million dollar contract from the Denver Broncos to help bring them back to the playoffs and prove that last year’s numbers were no fluke for the quarterback.
Now, to set things straight, I’m not saying that 3,547 yards and 22 touchdowns are crazy numbers, but they were good enough to make him the 14th highest scoring quarterback in fantasy football last season. So looking at his solid finish last year, my prediction for top-15 isn’t all that crazy. There is some chatter that he won’t be as good this season because of his new team, and even if that affects him a little bit, realize that Keenum practically missed the first two games of the season and still finished in the top-15. The veteran quarterback did play in the second game, but only after Sam Bradford left with an injury, so it’s tough to count that poor showing against him. Even if you include Week Two in his overall production, he still averaged about 15.9 fantasy points per game in standard scoring. If you added that 15.9 points into Week One when he didn’t play, he would have finished as the 13th highest scoring quarterback. Currently, Keenum is being ranked as the 25th quarterback by FantasyPros.com which means he would drop a whole 11 spots from last year’s finish, and unless he gets hurt, I don’t see that kind of regression coming. If the rankings only had him falling a few spots, I would understand, but there is no reason to expect such a drop-off.
It’s not as if Keenum signed with a terrible team, the Broncos may not be quite as good as the Vikings, but all they needed was a solid quarterback to make the offense consistent. Now in Denver, the University of Houston product will be surrounded by a supporting cast featuring two very skilled wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and two capable running backs with Devontae Booker and rookie Royce Freeman. The offensive weapons might not be the same as last year, but they provide a solid foundation for the 30-year-old quarterback to work off of. One thing that might work in favor of Keenum is that without Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon providing a fantastic run game, he may be called upon to throw the ball much more this season. It also might help that after playing with one of the best defenses in the league in 2017, the signal-caller may have to lead his offense to more scoring now that the Broncos defense isn’t exactly what it used to be. Between the run game and defense, this might mean that Keenum will throw the ball much more this season, only increasing his fantasy value.
The AFC West can be a daunting division for quarterbacks, but based on the great seasons that Alex Smith and Phillip Rivers had in 2017 it shouldn’t discourage prospective Keenum drafters. It also helps that the Broncos have the ninth best schedule for quarterbacks based on the FantasyPros.com strength of schedule tool. The fantasy playoffs should also bode well for Keenum that he gets to face the San Francisco 49ers and the Cleveland Browns in Weeks 14 and 15, followed by the Oakland Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers. The game against the Chargers isn’t ideal, so rostering another quarterback in case you are competing for a championship might be the best thing to do.
It is no guarantee that Case Keenum will live up to my top-15 expectations, but it is pretty apparent that he is in line to finish much better than his ranking of 25th. Coming off of a career year on a new team with a good group of receivers around him, and a favorable schedule, Keenum may be one of the biggest steals on draft day especially if you can grab him as your backup quarterback.
