With the dust of the NFL Free Agency settled, now is the time to focus on some big names that have changed teams and how it has affected their value in fantasy football. The 2018 offseason was a big one for players moving teams and it should bring some excitement come draft day in many fantasy football leagues. Some players may benefit greatly from their new teams and others may suffer, but either it is always fun to envision what they can do in their new situation. Just make sure that come draft time, you don’t over-value these players just because they have had a change of scenery. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest offseason acquisitions.
Alex Smith, QB, Washington Redskins:
As I have expressed in previous articles, I think Alex Smith is going to provide fantastic draft day value in the upcoming season. So far this summer, Smith is going in drafts as the 21st quarterback of the board according to Fantasypros.com Average Draft Position rankings, and in many standard leagues that means he’ll most likely be undrafted. To think that the former Kansas City Chief is being drafted after the likes of Derek Carr and Jameis Winston despite finishing 2017 as the fourth-highest scoring quarterback even after missing Week 17 is just ridiculous. Smith is in a prime position to have a great follow-up campaign to his career-best season. I’m not expecting the signal-caller to be top-10 necessarily, but a finish around 12th is completely reasonable, and even that is taking a huge step back from what he did last year. Washington is going to provide Smith with enough weapons to make him fantasy relevant, and the Redskins are still a viable wild-card candidate despite being in a tough division. I won’t preach anymore about the veteran, so if you want more details check out my previous article on Smith being a fantastic sleeper pick. As of now, Smith comes in as my 16th highest ranked quarterback, going just outside the top-100 players, making him a great value pick.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers:
After emerging into fantasy relevance during his fourth season in the NFL, Jerick McKinnon will be leaving the cold weather in Minnesota and head to sunny California. McKinnon played the backup role to Adrian Peterson in his first three seasons but was called into action after rookie Dalvin Cook tore his ACL, and he ended up splitting time with Latavius Murray. The Georgia Southern University product played more of the passing down back last season but was still given 150 carries, and was his second year of receiving that many touches on the ground. Unfortunately, McKinnon has not shown a lot promise as a runner the past two seasons averaging right around 3.6 yards per carry over his last 309 rushes. To counterbalance his inefficient rushing numbers the past two seasons, he has caught a combined 94 passes for 676 yards and four touchdowns. The hope is that by playing under Kyle Shanahan, McKinnon will see the same success that Carlos Hyde, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman have seen while playing for the offensive-minded coach. I currently have the former Minnesota Viking ranked as my 15th highest running back but still within my top-30 sitting at 27th overall. My ranking of McKinnon is slightly lower than most, mainly because I’m not convinced he will be a great goal-line option for the 49ers which could make his value in non-PPR formats take a large hit.
Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears:
The former Jacksonville Jaguar was able to cash-in this off-season despite tearing his ACL in Week 1 of 2017 and missing the entire rest of the season. It will be interesting to see if the Bears’ gamble pays off because much of the allure that surrounds Allen Robinson has to do with his fantastic 2015 season when he produced 1,400 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. Other than that 2015 campaign, Robinson hasn’t been all that great; his numbers declined dramatically to 883 yards and six touchdowns on only two fewer targets in the next season. Even if you’re of the opinion that Robinson is overrated, it has to be acknowledged that there is some major sleeper potential now that he is in Chicago. The hope for anyone who drafts a player on the Bears this season is that second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky takes a major leap now that he has a much improved supporting cast around him. The team went out and signed Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton to help create a solid receiving core for their young quarterback to work with. There is also a hope that new head coach Matt Nagy will help Trubisky take a Jared Goff kind of leap this season, and that will give great value to many of the playmakers on the offense. It is easy to envision Robinson getting around 150 targets like his two fully healthy seasons in Jacksonville, and any receiver who gets that much attention should have a floor of a WR2. I currently have the fifth year playmaker as my 17th ranked wide receiver, and at 38th overall. So while it might cost you a third or fourth round pick to grab Robinson, he should see enough targets to make him a reliable option every week.
C.J. Anderson, RB, Carolina Panthers:
The 27-year-old running back is ditching the Mile High City after five seasons to head to the east coast. C.J. Anderson was pretty solid in his time with the Denver Broncos but was not valuable enough to earn a big contract. The sixth-year running back is a career 4.4 yard per carry rusher and has a combined 24 touchdowns over his last four seasons. After reaching the 200-rush plateau and 1,000 rushing yard mark for the first time last season, Anderson will have a tough time repeating that while moving into a Carolina Panthers backfield that will have a heavy focus on their young star Christian McCaffrey. Although his passing down work will be limited, the University of California product should have a shot at early-down and goal-line work making him relevant in almost every fantasy football league. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Anderson to reach 1,000 total yards and six touchdowns this season, but that is probably the best case scenario. A lot of the veteran’s value is tied to how McCaffrey performs in his second full season. I currently have Anderson ranked as the 33rd highest running back and 84th overall, but I have McCaffrey ranked much higher as my 16th runner off the board.
